Tuesday, January 10, 2012

New Hampshire - 2012

Good day all!

The New Hampshire primary is today. I thought it would be good to preview this race and see how those who are going to be stories in New Hampshire stack up.

First of all, it is a forgone conclusion that Mitt Romney will win the race. He'll come out of it today not only with the most votes, but also the most total delegates (which is what really matters). The real question for Mitt is how good is good enough in New Hampshire. Right now, Real Clear Politics has Romney winning by 20 points in their polling average. Let's not kid ourselves, that's a complete victory. If he wins by that or more, he'll emerge as the clear front runner.

Can we pause for a moment and ask ourselves why in the world the Republican party at large is supporting Mitt Romney? If there is one thing that annoys me to no end about the GOP is its propensity to talk like conservatives and then act like democrats in the voting booth. In 1988 and 1992 it was George H.W. Bush, in 1996 it was Bob Dole, in 2000 & 2004 we had Bush shoved down our throats as a conservative despite his reputation as the moderate's moderate, and in 2008 we had, of all people, John McCain who spent of his time making deals with Russ Feingold, Ted Kennedy, and John Kerry.

Now we have Romney. The architect of Obama Care. The tax raiser. The big government spender. The world government advocate. The cheerleader for Wall Street Bailouts. The former governor who appointed mostly liberal judges. The welcome wagon for illegal immigrants. The man who takes advice from THIS GUY. The guy who supports strict gun control. The man who brags about being more pro-choice than Ted Kennedy. The lobbyist's best friend. The property of the banks.

That Mitt Romney. All of this proves is that the GOP at large is no friend of Christians, no friend of conservatives, and frankly. . . DESERVE WHAT THEY GET. Most of all, it proves that they aren't conservative.

Second Place is likely to go to Ron Paul. He's not going to win this one, but he can still do some damage. Although I don't think he can take advantage of the system to get an extra delegate or two, I do think that if he finishes closer than the polls, he'll continue his good momentum coming out of Iowa. Unfortunately, he is going to do terribly in South Carolina. If the election were held today, he'd finish a solid fourth place behind Romney, Santorum, and Gingrich. The word out of the Paul campaign is that they are planning a major push in Florida. At this point, it's not looking great for the Paul campaign in Florida.

However, Gingrich, Perry, and Huntsman are still in this race. I'd like to point out that Perry and Huntsman don't have enough support to get on the ballot in some states, and Gingrich is done. He might have a last stand in South Carolina, but he's not going to win. The word on the street is that it's personal for Gingrich and he wants to destroy Romney. It's just a matter of time for Perry and Huntsman who should fold up the tent any day now.

I think that Paul's campaign is hoping to be the guy who stays around long enough to pick up the pieces. Cain's departure helped him. Bachman's departure has helped him a little. Huntsman's departure will help him in a HUGE way, and Gingrich's people hate Romney. If Santorum falls. . . and he will. . . Paul could be in a position to have enough delegates to force a real convention in Tampa. But he HAS to start winning.

Third place will probably go to Huntsman, although I wouldn't be surprised if he finished with less than the polls are giving him. Huntsman doesn't matter. He's poured everything he has into New Hampshire and he'll barely finish in third.

Fourth place is where the race gets interesting. Santorum is riding high coming out of Iowa. He is the darling of Rush Limbaugh, Sean Hannity, and most of all Glenn Beck. If Santorum, who has had a new influx of money from his new found popularity can't beat Gingrich, who is reeling, then this will mark the beginning of the end for Santorum. The death blow will come if Santorum loses to Gingrich in a state that is supposed to be his bread and butter: South Carolina.

If I had to guess right now, I'd say it's going to be Romney vs. Obama in 2012 with Obama winning in a landslide. But it's not over yet. The reason Romney would be defeated in a landslide is because no one outside of his 20% of Republicans like him. That means there are 80% of republicans out there who are looking for someone else. It's time the Paul campaign capitalized on that. Sure, not all of them will support Paul, but most of them should. The question is: "will they?"

I'll have a recap tomorrow. We'll get back to some other topics after that, and then we'll have a discussion on this blog amongst us brothers and sisters in the Lord as to why we ought to support no one except Ron Paul in 2012.

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